Vietnam Draft Lottery - their chances

[trickystick]

Hey guys, I'm new here. Actually I was caught in an obsession of figuring this out (after getting back into the Outsiders, having reread it two days ago), and figured I would ask around for info and just to share it lol.

(Note: i had no idea what I would write would turn out this long. Therefore I've bolded my questions to make them easier to find. Although this is mostly a discussion thread anyway.)

First off I have a question- when exactly is the book set? I've seen years ranging between 1964 to 1966. I suppose in the big picture it doesn't matter, but individual events such as being in space, CW developments as well as the draft! would. The draft lottery first started in 1969, and Soda/Steve are stated as 16/17 in the book. So if the book is set in 1964 they would have been born in 1947, instead of 1949 if the book is set in 1966. Since drafting before 1969 was on the basis of age, they would have had a higher chance of being drafted, especially in 1968 which had the highest induction levels.

Forgive me if I get details wrong - I only did a bit of research, but some info is hard to find >< And of course my memory is not infallible >.> I'll research more later.

Anyway I did some figuring out and assuming the book is set in 1966... most of our favourite Outsiders characters would actually not have had a high chance of being drafted!

First off, Darry - I read somewhere that oldest sons would not have been drafted (so Two-Bit, Tim, Darry, /maybe/ Dally, Johnny), but I don't know whether it applies pre-1968, post-1969 or whatever. But as the legal guardian of Ponyboy and Soda (at least till Soda turned 18) he would have been considered as a father so would probably be off the draft database anyway.

*Actually - did the rules for drafting change during the Vietnam War? I've read that mothers have lost both sons to the war, firstborns, etc. but from other sources I read that a) firstborn sons were not drafted and b) having one member of your family drafted drasticallyd ecreased your chances of being called up, so I'm kind of confused here.

Also what's the rule for orphans and adopted people? (just curious)

Anyway, moving on... assuming the book is set in 1966, here are the birth years:
Darry - 1946
Ponyboy - 1952
Soda/Steve - 1949
Dally/Tim? - 1948 (I forgot Tim's age..)
Two-Bit - 1947
Johnny - 1950
Randy - no clue... I think he's either a junior or senior, so he would have been 17 to 19, so birth year 1947 to 1949 I suppose. Either way he's eligible for the 1969 lotto.)

The first draft lotto in 1969 was for men aged between 19 and 25, so born between 1944 and 1950. Pony is safely out of this. (Well, unless the book is set in 1964. -.-)

Here's the birthdays of each character followed by their birthday's lotto draw (lower number = higher chance of being drafted. Out of the 365/366 possible numbers the first third were reliably drafted, for the middle third it was a hit and miss, and the final third was not drafted.)

The highest number called into Vietnam from the 1969 lottery was 195.

Darry - Jan 5 - 101 - High chance of being drafted, however probably exempt due to legal status as Pony's guardian... (also the whole firstborn thing) (note: if novel set in 1964, Pony would have been 19 by then - darry would no longer have legal guardian status)
Soda - Oct 8 - 283 - Last third of lotto numbers, super low chance of being drafted
Steve - April 15 - 273 - Last third of lotto numbers, super low chance of being drafted
Dally - Nov 9 - 80 - Most definitely would have been drafted (if he were alive...) - Actually, the idea of Dally in the Vietnam War is quite fascinating to me. Wonder what kind of soldier he would have been? There's also the chance he would commit a crime and land himself in jail than serve in Vietnam XD (Unless official records show he is a firstborn/only son, but in fanfiction that is easily circumvented >.>)
Two-Bit - June 20 - 360 - Ha, look at his luck. (He was a firstborn son anyway)
Tim - Nov 5 - 310 - low chance - wonder when Curly's birthday is?
Johnny - March 1 - 108 - High chance of being drafted. Unless you pull the 'only child' card, which I think he is...
Randy - Feb 10 - 216 - Bottom of middle third - they only went up to 195 anyway.
Pony (assuming book set in 1964) - July 22 - 153 - Middle third, hit and miss really. Well, he probably would have been drafted seeing that they called up to those with lotto number 195 in 1969...

----

1970 lotto - assuming book set in 1965

Pony - July 22 - 282 - Low chance...

----

1971 lotto - assuming book set in 1966

Pony - 132 - Apparently, for 1971 they only called those with lotto number up to #91 into Vietnam, so he would have been safe.


Incidentally once you were inducted, you could not be inducted again - so if you were given a lotto number but not called up to serve during that year, you could never be called into service again.

Yes, this was mostly derived from over-thinking Soda and Steve going to the Vietnam War <.< And, also, thinking of a way to get Dally there >.>

Of course a sure-fire way to get characters into the war is to have them enlist... >_> Oh, wait. That opens up a whole new can of worms.

How easy would it have been for people with criminal records - Soda, Tim, Dally, Curly, Steve, Two-Bit etc. - to enlist? Would the army not have cared as it was wartime?

Sources:
www.landscaper.net/draft.htm
answers.google.com/answers/threadview/id/309918.html
www.greatdreams.com/war/draft-conscription.htm


So yea there ends my first post here. Sorry for the TLDR. I'd just like to see your thoughts regarding this and please tell me if I made any mistakes

[Nittanylizard]

Oooh, that's some good information!

Welcome to the forum, by the way .

As far as when the book is set - I think Susie Hinton started writing it in 1964 (somebody correct me if I'm wrong, it might have been late 1963), so I assume that's the year she had in mind while writing it, but since it was a couple years before it was published, most fanfiction writers use 1966 as the year it was set.

After I reread the book over five years ago and started reading fanficiton and writing my first story, I talked to my husband about Vietnam, the draft, etc. at that time period (he knows quiet a bit about military history). I was thinking most specifically about Ponyboy. He pretty much said the same thing you did - that if the book was set in 1966, by the time he was old enough to go, there was a much lower chance that he'd get drafted than if the book had been set in 1964/65. His reasoning had more to do with the fact that they significantly dropped the number of kids they were sending after the Tet Offensive in January 1968.

I find it really interesting that based on draft numbers (for the 1966 scenario), Johnny and Dally were the most likely to have been drafted. Either one gets you thinking.

[trickystick]

Thank ya, and thank ya :]

Ah, I see. Interesting... thanks!

It is interesting, isn't it? I think Vietnam would have been hmmm... it's hard to say, for Dally, if he managed to survive. I can picture him not really having a turning point, but if he were drafted, one could potentially come by in Vietnam. Maybe he would realise the futility of hating, or violence. Actually when I was in the shower just now I came up with this little plotline where he's drafted, finds that Tim's enlisted, because most of his buddies were drafted (and maybe Curly as well, for drama >.>) and heads off to Vietnam.

Johnny in Vietnam would have been equally interesting. It's hard to say whether he would have made it through. Maybe time away from his parents would toughen him up?

I found more interesting links:
www.vietnamwardraftlottery.com - This has stories from those who were affected by the draft. Curiously, there is NO ONE from Oklahoma who's posted up a story so far. There are a lot of Californians though...

www.allacademic.com//meta/p_mla_apa_research_citation/3/6/4/5/0/pages364505/p364505-1.php
An interesting research paper, although I haven't finished reading it yet.


Anyway, I can definitely see a Curtis family fic, maybe with Two-Bit and Steve (personally, I don't think Dally would have been there), with them nervously watching the lottery live on television, or at least listening to the numbers live on radio.


edit: Apparently, in 1971 student deferments were abolished. i suppose this could be used in a fanfic for dramatic effect - a door to safety had just been closed, etc. Ponyboy would also have been a sophomore in college during this year (because he skipped a year).

[Nittanylizard]

The shower: The place where about 50% of my writing ideas emerge, haha ;D.

I had Soda enlist before he could get drafted in one of my stories. Some people didn't like that, but I could see him making a really good soldier and moving into a leadership position quickly. Tim enlisting could be a good story, especially if it's because Curly got drafted.

[trickystick]

I know right? There's just something about that place that allows the brain to relax and wander a bit.. 8)

I wonder if the greasers knew how to get out of the draft? I can see the Socs and even middle class being educated on how to evade the draft, but I wonder about the poorer side of the neighbourhood... I'm just wondering if they knew that by enlisting, they'd be able to choose their department, and in a way dodge the draft, if they signed on to something else like the Air Force or Navy. Was the army's pay pretty handsome compared to other jobs they could take? That would be another factor.

Yes, and then in the end he goes to college through the GI Bill 8) Ha! Maybe. Probably not.

[whatcoloristhesky]

Actually, the first-born son thing is a myth from what I've researched. Darry would have been deferred due to his gaurdianship of Ponyboy anyway, and by the time Ponyboy was an adult and Darry was no longer responsible for him, Darry would have been twenty-four which would have put him at a lesser priority in the lottery.

There were quite a few deferments that the boys could have gotten during the sixties that would have started to disappear by the seventies. You already mentioned the student deferment, which would have served to help quite a few boys (unfortunately, probably not the greasers unless they worked through it), but there was also marriage, having dependents (being a parent of guardian), and conscientious objector (which wouldn't have been too easy to get, really).

[trickystick]

Apr 8, 2010 12:22:48 GMT -5 whatcoloristhesky said:

Darry would have been twenty-four which would have put him at a lesser priority in the lottery.

I thought that they just called EVERYONE of that birth date, going in order of first letter of surnames (that were drawn), in the draft lottery, regardless of age... Oh, hang on a second. Ponyboy would have turned 18 in 1970 if you follow 'set in 1966' verse. I didn't look at Darry's chances for that yet XD He would have been eligible for the 1970 lottery.

His number (Jan 5) for 1970 was 33. So uh... Guess he would probably have been sent.

What was the basis for the firstborn son myth, then, do you know? I mean, it had to come from somewhere... Would only sons still not be eligible then? But if you come from a family with multiple sons, they're all game? (Until one of them dies.)

I think Nixon got rid of the marriage one, or was it JFK that started to ignore it? I don't remember exactly. I remember reading something about a rush to the altar, because marriages after a certain date wouldn't be eligible for getting out of the draft.

[texaskid]

I don't really know much about the draft I just know that if you go off the marques listings in the movie you have

The Hustler (1961)
Gidget Goes To Rome (1963)

Beach Blanket Bingo (1965)
Muscle Beach Party (1964)

It seems a little strange to me that a drive in would show two movies from different years along with a movie theater. I'm still saying 1966 unless there is something specific from the book that says otherwise.

[whatcoloristhesky]

I thought that they just called EVERYONE of that birth date, going in order of first letter of surnames (that were drawn), in the draft lottery, regardless of age... Oh, hang on a second. Ponyboy would have turned 18 in 1970 if you follow 'set in 1966' verse. I didn't look at Darry's chances for that yet XD He would have been eligible for the 1970 lottery.

His number (Jan 5) for 1970 was 33. So uh... Guess he would probably have been sent.

Apologies, I was confusing myself with the current draft laws. He would've been drafted.

What was the basis for the firstborn son myth, then, do you know? I mean, it had to come from somewhere... Would only sons still not be eligible then? But if you come from a family with multiple sons, they're all game? (Until one of them dies.)

Sons/brothers can qualify for the surviving son or brother deferment, which comes about when someone in the immediate family dies while fighting for our country. They're given a peacetime deferment, but in a state of national emergency when Congress declares war, they still have to go if they are drafted. Originally it was only applicable to the sole surviving son, but in 1971 they expanded it to all sons, and a little while ago, it became applicable to mothers.

I think Nixon got rid of the marriage one, or was it JFK that started to ignore it? I don't remember exactly. I remember reading something about a rush to the altar, because marriages after a certain date wouldn't be eligible for getting out of the draft.

It definitely wasn't JFK. People weren't even being drafted for 'Nam when he was assassinated.

[trickystick]

I see, thanks for the info!
And yea, my US history is a bit dodgy.. >.>

[missmouse]

How do you know exactly what their numbers would be?

[whatcoloristhesky]

They are listed on this website: www.sss.gov/lotter1.htm

Click on the lottery year and it lists it for you.

[coowefe]

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[Boop]

Me over here in 2024 (14 years after it was posted)